Saturday 14 March 2009

Risk Free Return is not a Utopia afterall.

B-School Pundits have been trying to drill the relationship between risk and return into my head. Logic says "Higher the risk, higher should be the expected return". Gambling is a high risk activity and hence should be associated with higher expected return. As far as I know betting is very close to gambling.

But if one is willing to accept lower return, a small return might be achievable with almost zero risk in betting. I am talking from the point of view of the betting companies. The internet revolution has seen a proliferation of these companies. Some of them does not seem to be very prudent.

Let us take the example of a football match. In a last week's fixture the odds for scoring more than two goals in the match were different on two sites. If you bet with William Hill you could win 80P for 1 Pound if there are more than 2.5 goals (to cover the possibility of 2 goals). The same bet on Company X had an odd of 1:1. Imagine that a person bets 1 Pound on WH and WH hedges it with a bet of 90P on Company X. Whether it looses or wins, it still gets 10P. A 10% risk free return in 1.5 hours! Good?

Is it legal to sell and buy bets in the UK? I do not know. If it is, are the companies doing it? I do not know. But if they are not, why do'nt they recruit me. In the current environment, I do not mind working for a betting company. I can watch free football too!!